At smaccGOLD last year, David Pilcher gave a talk with the intriguing title, “Prediction in Critical Care: Science, Art or Foolishness?”.
Dave is an Intensivist here at the Alfred ICU, as well as a Professor with the Department of Epidemiology and Preventative Medicine at Monash University and is chair of the ANZICS Centre for Outcomes and Resource Evaluation (CORE). Not many know the numbers like he does! Hear what he has to say about prediction of outcomes in ICU:
- predictions are common, and are commonly wrong
- the concepts of discrimination, calibration and validation
- Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and comparing ICUs
- why sepsis mortality in Australasian ICUs may or may not be zero in 2026
Audio (mp3 download):